About WPR
An Impressive Record for Over 20 Years
Woodley Park Research is a boutique economic consultancy overseen by Richard J. DeKaser, founder and president. It specializes in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting, and housing market research. Commited to quality and accuracy, Woodley Park Reseach strives to provide clarity to real-time economic questions.
Rigorous Testing
DeKaser’s forecasts have been rigorously evaluated by economist’s at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta since 2003, when USA Today began collecting forecasts and sending them to the Atlanta Fed for ranking. Without a doubt, this is the most scientific and thorough evaluation of forecaster accuracy in existence, and DeKaser’s track record is remarkably strong. He beat the median forecast in 5-of-6 years and ranked in the top decile three times (1st in 2006, 4th in 2004 and 3rd in 2003). As investment professionals well know, past performance is no guarantee of future results. But no forecaster can guarantee future results and nothing beats a track record when assessing past performance.
Solid Performance
DeKaser’s performance on the housing market is equally impressive. He developed a statistical model that consistently tracked property price excesses over the past 4 years, from what was initially a smattering of housing "bubblettes" to the vast excesses that characterized the middle of this decade. Each of the past four year’s reports may be found on this site. You’re welcome to read them and see for yourself.