Woodley Park Outlook
Each month, generally during the first week, Woodley Park Research provides an updated economic forecast, including interest rates, inflation and other key metrics. A forecast summary, only, is presented here. Customized work is available as needed.
March 2010
After a stellar Q4, growth is throttling back. While weather-related imacts on housing and consumer spending will temper growth in Q1, the outlook is solidly on track.
February 2010
Despite a still-sluggish labor market, the expansion carries substantial momentum into Q1. The inventory swing will continue, followed by improved housing and business investment.
Download February Outlook (pdf)
January 2010
Q4 is sure to exceed my previous expectations, which will trim the outlook for the first half of 2010 somewhat. Nonetheless, predictions for the year as a whole are largely unchanged.
Download January Outlook (pdf)
December 2009
Despite the mark-down on Q3, 2010 remains on track for steady improvement.
Download December Outlook (pdf)
November 2009
Q3 came in exactly as predicted, and the forecast remains on-track.
Download November Outlook (PDF)
October 2009
The expansion is now underway, with above-trend growth predicted for the next two years.
Download October Outlook (PDF)
September 2009
Economic indicators, especially housing-related, have consistently surprised on the upside, and financial conditions are easing.
Download September Outlook (PDF)
August 2009
Benchmark revisions to the National Accounts now depict a more severe recession than first thought, though the case for a more rapid recovery also gained merit.
July 2009
The employment situation remains bleak and is likely to get worse, but housing has stabilized and the outlook for a second half rebound remains intact.
Download July 2009 Outlook (PDF)
June 2009
Interest rates and commodity prices have risen sharply, on signs of "green shoots". In each case, however, the gains seem overdone. The outlook for a second half rebound remains intact.
Download June 2009 Outlook (PDF)
May 2009
Investment spending remains in freefall, but stimulus spending is providing a modest offset. The outlook for a second half rebound remains intact.
Download May 2009 Outlook (PDF)
April 2009
While the economy remains in recession, the pace of decline is slowing and growth will resume during the second half of 2009.
Download April 2009 Outlook (PDF)